Jim Long Pork Commentary – June 3rd, 2019

Jim Long - President/CEO, Genesus Inc.

Global Mega Producers

The list of 2018’s Global Mega Producers was launched via a Virtual Conference

National Hog Farmer Content Director Ann Hess unveils this year’s top companies in the opening session of the Global Hog Industry Virtual Conference.

Plus, Jim Long of Genesus and Dennis Smith of Archer Financial Services provides insight as to the market trends shaping the global hog industry in 2019 and beyond. Moderated by broadcaster Max Armstrong of Farm Progress/This Week In Agribusiness.

Other Observations:

Would be first time in history U.S. corn-soybean crop failure due to to much rain- In history it was always drought. Lots of land not planted because it is too wet and it is June 1.
We have all seen run up in corn-soybean prices in the last couple weeks. Next few days critical to acres planted and where feed prices go.
It appears U.S. market hog price is hovering in an area for a breakout. We understand about 100,000 carcasses combined a week from various packers are about to begin to be shipped to China. That is about 4% of U.S. hog weekly marketings. This will be price supportive.
The 100,000 per head if correct is just a drop in the bucket of Chinas Pork Shortfall. Chinas April Live Hog Inventory was down 60 million head year over year. That’s 2 million plus less hogs each week. China inventory decrease in the last 15 months equal to the U.S. total inventory.
Chinas small pigs are selling in the $135 per head range. That’s the Canary in the Coal mine for future markets. We were told when we were in China that breakeven would be 24 rmb per kilo on these hogs about $1.50 U.S. liveweight a lb.
Sow liquidation hasn’t stopped in China. Ministry of Agriculture indicates about 700,000 decrease in April from March. Since the first of January sow herd liquidation (Jan-April), just under 4 million sows. The China sow herd continues to decline at an astounding pace.

Summary:

China Sow herd and hog market inventory still in a freefall. We expect record prices in the worlds hog markets in the coming months.

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