USA Market Report, Sept 2018
Allan Bentley, Sales, Genesus Genetics
African Swine Fever….I am a little surprised this is not bigger news all over the hog industry. I am as equally perplexed as to why we have only seen $9.00 rise in next summer’s hog futures. After the first case was reported, I surmised there would be more cases reported very quickly. I believe China has reported 18 cases, so if they are admitting to that I would guess it is closer to 180 cases. These cases are spread over a 1,400 mile area and millions of swine in between each unit that reported an outbreak. The dense population of swine in China leads me to the conclusion they will never get rid of this disease.
The sheer numbers involved are incredible and once the world realizes what is happening we could see a large upswing in hog prices. We have seen what PEDv can do to hog prices. How do we keep ASF from the North American herd? A lot of vitamins and feed ingredients are imported from China. This will be an issue if the virus can stay alive in the feed as it is transported across the ocean. If ASF gets to North American, I would assume that is how it will arrive. If it does make it here, the price increase I am predicting will be over in a hurry. A vaccine would certainly help contain ASF, but as of today, unfortunately, none exists.
We all know the numbers involved with China’s hog production and their appetite for pork. If they want to feed their people, I would think they would want to get the trade dispute with President Trump resolved quickly.
This virus makes PED and PRRS look like wimps! It can be carried by feed, water, all bodily secretions, most processed meats, manure etc. There is no vaccine or treatment at this time. Clinically pigs range from sudden death to subacute infections. Hemorrhage in skin areas-primarily flanks, enlarged spleen, bloody lymph nodes, high fevers, are all possible. Requires lab testing to differentiate from erysipelas, hog cholera, and salmonella.
“BIOSECURITY is the only protection we have. No products from China or SE Asia should be used. Most of our disinfectants will work if used correctly.
Can China and the other SE Asia countries control ASF? Their biosecurity is questionable. What effects will a decline in their production have on our markets? These and other questions remain to a be seen.” RC Ebert DVM
“I think there will come a point where this is all factored in the futures. Aka buy the rumor and sell the fact. Also in an epidemic they just don’t destroy the affected herd, but the neighboring herds that are still unaffected to slow the spread (sometimes 3 mile radius) to contain it. That adds to even more numbers eliminated.” Joe Carr DVM
This article was possible with the collaboration of:
Dr. RC Ebert, Pleasant Hill Animal Clinic
Dr. Joe Carr, River View Vet Service
This post was written by Genesus