Jim Long Pork Commentary Jan 22 – MN Pork Congress

Jim Long President – CEO Genesus Inc. info@genesus.com

Minnesota Pork Congress

January 22, 2016

This past week we attended the Minnesota Pork Congress held in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Minnesota is the Number 3 hog producing state. Our Observations
  • The Congress was well organised and the venue is professional at the Minneapolis Convention Center.
  • The major hospitality reception held at the Hilton Hotel is hosted by Hormel Foods and Zoetis and is well done.
  • Lots of talk about sow herd expansion, but when we drill down asking about where new sow barn are actually being built, now we find out there is none. Maybe they will come but at this moment, we can’t find any. There will be some starting this spring but how many? Who knows! Talk is cheap as my Father told me “It takes money to buy whiskey.”
  • New sow units farrow to wean are costing $1800 to $2000 per sow capacity.
  • Lots of finishers being built, we expect that someone must have pigs to put in them or think they do.
  • Demand for early weans and feeder pigs remain strong (Cash feeder pigs $71.30 up $14 in two weeks). Lots of chasing for small pigs at the Congress. Seems some large production systems are short pigs and trying to fill their spaces.
  • At the Congress, we heard of recent PED breaks in sow units. Not sure it will effect numbers much but it tells us PED hasn’t gone away. Throw in PRRS and AI extender issues and it cuts hog numbers in the future.
  • Talking to some packers it appears China is in the market more and pork moving there at a high volume. How much? That’s a secret.
  • Lots of talk about new packer capacity coming on line. Which packers will lose hogs to the new entities? We expect the Gross Margin Packers see how it could be history when the new capacity goes into production. We add up to 150,000 – 200,000 new capacity per week, if it all happens. That’s 7-10 million hogs per year more capacity. It is a potential game changer.
  • Our sense of COOL (Country of Origin Labeling) gone and US-Canadian exchange rate means there will be more pigs and hogs from Canada to fill the new shackle space.
  • Some packers tell us COOL is over for them and all Canadian pigs are welcome. Some others not as aggressive. As weekly marketings decline we expect Canadian pigs will have increased demand.
This coming week we will be at the Iowa Pork Congress. Come visit us at the Genesus booth and/or Genesus reception Wednesday night at the Principal River’s Edge Restaurant (Wells Fargo Arena). Next week we will report our observations at the Iowa Pork Congress.    
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