Pork Comentary, March 19, 2018
Jim Long, President-CEO, Genesus Inc.
Some Market Observations
Are US hog weights starting to go down?
- Last week everyday, Monday toThursday, had lower weights then the week before. To get stronger hog prices we must get to lower weights and/or lower hog marketing numbers. We believe we are near the low price for winter-spring.
- US pork cut-outs last week were at 72.50 ¢ To get hog prices up from the mid 60’s, pork cut-outs need to go higher.
- They will go higher as hog numbers and/or weights decline.
- Small pig prices remain strong. US average Cash early weans were $50.44 last week. Strong prices as early weans are for early full marketing. It appears demand for small pigs is quite positive for the sellers.
- Summer lean hog futures are around 80¢ lb; at one point they were in the 85¢ lb range.
We still expect the summer market to rebound and reach 90¢ lb. Reason – hog supply will seasonally decline, plenty of packer capacity will lead to next to zero gross packer margins.
This post was written by Genesus