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Jim Long's Pork Commentary » March 23, 2009 March 23, 2009 |
| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2008 as % of 2006 |
Sows | 15,569 | 14,904 | 13,977 | -10.3% |
Total All Pigs | 161,929 | 159,724 | 152,975 | -5.5% |
The European Union 27 country sow inventory has dropped about one million sows in the last year and 1.6 million in the last two years - a huge liquidation (10.3%). This decrease of sows is greater than Canada's entire sow inventory.
EU's total pig inventory is down approximately 7 million pigs from December 2007 to December 2008. That would be about 280,000 less market hogs a week on average year over year. It's a lot and will help push market prices higher. Last week for example, Poland's slaughter price was 66 cents US / lb.
EU27 hog supplies means less pork tonnage for EU exports, whether it be Japan Korea, Russia, etc. Also, Europe market prices of approximately 66 cents US / lb will give US, Canada, and Brazil huge price competiveness in export markets.
The EU 27 country inventory was counted in December. Our sources in Europe indicate there has been continued liquidation since then. Higher global feed prices over the last 2 years and financial losses have devastated livestock inventories in Europe and the rest of the world. Total meat availability is decreasing. Fewer hogs in Europe helps everyone's hog prices.
Other Observations
* USDA Pork Cutouts have gained 5 cents per pound. In the last 2 weeks packers have restored their margins. Cutouts of 60.80 and Iowa-Minnesota Lean Hog Price of 55.22 give them a spread that is profitable especially when you consider good future processing margins.
* Weekly hog marketings are falling in line with expectations. The US last week had 2.115 million, with 2.303 million a year ago - about 150,000 less (-6%). We expect the trend line will be about 150,000 head fewer a week year over year during the next 3 months. Weeks upon weeks of such a large year over year decrease coupled with less beef and poultry is why we remain bullish on huge upside to the lean hog price. In May we expect US weekly marketings to be below 1.9 million a week - 250,000 head less than now. That's when we will find out how much packers want hogs.
U.S. February Month-End Cold Storage (thousand lbs)
| 2008 | 2009 | % Year Ago |
Beef | 436.5 | 434.2 | 99.5% |
Pork | 611.8 | 636.6 | 104.0% |
Chicken | 760.8 | 647.5 | 85.1% |
Turkey | 416.7 | 470.1 | 112.8% |
Total Poultry & Meat | 2225.8 | 2188.4 | 98.3% |
US pork in storage is up 25 million pounds year over year. Total poultry and meat in storage is about 40 million pounds less than a year ago. The US is producing around 1.9 million pounds of meat and poultry per week. Total poultry and meat in storage is about 8 days worth of US production, or just over 2% of the US annual production. We believe storage levels show that demand is good and indicates that owners of cold storage product believe that prices of meats will get stronger. You don't keep inventory if you think the price is going lower!
* Sow slaughter numbers are down. USDA sow prices over the last 4 weeks show an average price of 54.20, while a year ago the same 4 weeks was 26.25 - a difference of about $100 per sow. This sure is an indication that despite a recession when supplies re decreased, demand is such that prices can accelerate.
Three points:
* Big Sky Farms update. We have had no denial from either Big Sky Farms or the Saskatchewan Government about their 70% ownership of this 50,000 head sow system (half of the province's production). No one has denied the government owned farm is eligible for a $20 / market hog subsidy put in place by the government that owns them. Neither Big Sky or the government denies that $20 / head when you have 50,000 sows is a huge payout. Do your own arithmetic. The Big Question: How much of taxpayer's money is Big Sky losing every week? How much has the Saskatchewan government given, guaranteed, and subsidized Big Sky? The largest government owned hog farm in the world now that former communist countries privatized. You have to give it to the Saskatchewan government - they have as the chairman of Big Sky, an economist, Dr. Larry Martin from Ontario, a former university professor. Unfortunately, it appears that having an economist as a chairman gives no guarantee of success. Does Dr. Martin, an Ag-Economist, believe governments should own hog farms? Does he support this as he took the job as chairman? Is this free enterprise? Governments should not be hog farmers. It's wrong for them to compete with independent producers by using their tax payer money to prop up their inefficiencies. Big Sky, close the doors.
* Ontario Pork-Producers Marketing Board's plans to bring the Ontario Hog Producers hog marketing monopoly into the 21st century were put on hold last week. The 10 million dollar a year funded bureaucracy clings to the hope of job retention. Chairman Curtis Littlejohn teeters between supporting reform and the status quo, mostly status quo. The rumor that he wants to be the Hugo Chavez of the swine industry and stay on at next week's annual meeting will not go away. Curtis, you've had your time. Don't run again. You have been the captain of this bureaucratic nightmare, delivering during your tenure the lowest hog price in the world.
Hopefully soon the government officials who oversee the legal powers that have given this lame organization monopoly powers with get on with the job and free producers to sell hogs to whomever they wish. How novel! How radical!
* Data was released last week that indicate US Pork Exports held in January. A decrease of 4% in volume (2478 million pounds) but were up 2% in value at 295.8 million. We keep hearing from some pundits about the collapse of pork exports due to global recession. We have believed exports would hold, why? Global hog price points such as Mexico 65 cents US / lb, Australia $1.10 US lean / lb, Korea $1.30 US lean / lb, Japan $2.00 US lean / lb, EU 65 cents US / lb live, Russia $1.10 US lean / lb. Point is, every country that buys US pork have high domestic hog prices. It doesn't take a lot of business savy to buy hogs for 55 cents lean in the US and hit a price point competitive with these other countries' prices. Why would exports drop? Another consideration is every one of these countries' consumers are paying more for pork than US consumers. US consumers have more money to spend than the consumers in these other countries. It's also why we believe that as hog supply collapses in May and June that US consumers will continue to buy at higher prices.
* Merle in Nebraska tells us we'd all better get a gun. There is going to be so few hogs in the country in the coming months that the price of hogs will be so high that we'll all have to protect our hog barns against theft. Merle could be right. In Russia we saw armed security at all the barns. Hogs were $300 US / head. Let's hope hog prices are such that this is our biggest problem.
* A week ago we wrote that in Washington the only US Federal Government building we saw working on the weekend was where they print money. Low and behold, President Obama announced on Wednesday a plan to print over a trillion more dollars. A trillion. That as they say in Washington, will buy a lot of pork. This will be inflationary. It will also support higher commodity prices, including hogs. A lower US dollar supports exports.
Conclusion
Bottom Line:
Fewer hogs, exports holding, less poultry, less beef. It's a nasty business and now people are running out of money and losses have been huge. We expect continual lean hog price appreciation from now on with lean hogs hitting 90 cents in June.
GENESUS FINISHING PERFORMANCE
Genesus customer Whitetail Farm finishing progeny from 100% Genesus KS11's (true F1 - Genesus Purebred Yorkshire X Genesus Purebred Landrace) bred to Genesus T300 (Genesus Purebred Duroc boar). All February Shipments to Tyson Foods - Perry & Storm Lake, Iowa plants.
OUTSTANDING RESULTS
Date |
No. of Head |
Average Live Wgt. |
Fat Depth |
Lean Depth | % Lean | Yield |
Grade Premium |
Sort Loss |
February 5/09 | 182 | 277 | 0.71 | 2.89 | 56.00 | 74.02 | $6.64 | -$1.74 |
February 5/09 | 172 | 269 | 0.66 | 2.96 | 56.70 | 75.90 | $6.84 | -$1.62 |
February 13/09 | 172 | 276 | 0.65 | 3.14 | 57.40 | 76.37 | $7.38 | -$1.14 |
February 13/09 | 180 | 278 | 0.67 | 3.22 | 57.70 | 77.32 | $7.56 | -$1.94 |
February 16/09 | 177 | 268 | 0.59 | 2.97 | 57.10 | 76.69 | $7.06 | -$0.72 |
February 16/09 | 183 | 270 | 0.59 | 3.00 | 57.20 | 75.77 | $7.04 | -$0.86 |
February 17/09 | 182 | 271 | 0.64 | 2.71 | 55.70 | 75.52 | $6.54 | -$0.82 |
February 17/09 | 179 | 272 | 0.65 | 2.66 | 55.50 | 74.65 | $6.28 | -$0.57 |
February 18/09 | 178 | 283 | 0.79 | 2.68 | 54.70 | 74.37 | $6.20 | -$0.40 |
February 19/09 | 176 | 265 | 0.60 | 2.76 | 56.20 | 76.31 | $6.50 | -$0.58 |
February 20/09 | 177 | 268 | 0.66 | 2.59 | 55.10 | 74.06 | $5.82 | -$0.43 |
February 21/09 | 181 | 274 | 0.76 | 2.75 | 55.10 | 75.00 | $6.24 | -$0.55 |
February 25/09 | 175 | 264 | 0.60 | 3.13 | 57.80 | 76.37 | $6.79 | -$0.58 |
February 26/09 | 136 | 262 | 0.63 | 2.74 | 55.90 | 76.63 | $6.25 | -$0.49 |
February 26/09 | 179 | 259 | 0.63 | 2.92 | 56.70 | 75.67 | $6.47 | -$0.38 |
Weighted Average | 2629 | 270.55 | 0.66 | 2.88 | 56.32 | 75.62 | $6.65 | -$0.86 |
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